The Middle East Awakening

Anchoring the Arab Awakening

India's outward FDI A giant awakening? Geneva.

For recent trends, see India's outward FDI A giant awakening?

When, behold, they will be in the (full) awakening (to Judgment).

When, behold, they will be in the (full) awakening (to Judgment).

The Memorial Day is not only for reviving, but also for awakening.

I call it a breakdown my therapist calls it a spiritual awakening.

All that the human mind has accomplished is but the dream before the awakening.

A spiritual awakening sounds better than breakdown, but I assure you it was a breakdown.

Should this awakening fail, the result will be a radicalization throughout the region. There can be no return to the status quo ante.

I was a student in the '60s, a time of social upheaval and questioning, and on a personal level, an awakening sense of idealism.

In 1945, a world that was awakening from horror decided to create an Organization intended to save succeeding generations from the scourge of war.

And I'm so worn out at this point in my life, I look at her and I actually say, It was a frickin' spiritual awakening.

This is why music is immensely important in the awakening of sensibility, in the forging of values and in the training of youngsters to teach other kids.

And obviously, technology had existed before then, but we weren't aware of it, and so it was sort of an awakening of this force in our life.

But the Tea Party movement at its best (or in its origin) is constitutionalist. That is an awakening and long overdue  sentiment in America, and one that spans the political divide.

But the Tea Party movement at its best (or in its origin) is constitutionalist. That is an awakening and long overdue sentiment in America, and one that spans the political divide.

The rude awakening came when property values began to decline. For those without an equity cushion, refinancing was not a possibility, and rising interest rates have led to default, foreclosure, and homelessness.

The Middle East is undergoing a tectonic shift the Shia awakening. As with the slow, sure movement of the earth s plates, this deep, broad, underlying transformation is manifesting itself in local, destructive eruptions.

The only hope is that the eurozone makes strong progress toward establishing fiscal redistribution mechanisms, such as European unemployment insurance, before Draghi s anesthetic wears off. Otherwise, Europe will face a very rude awakening indeed.

After Mubarak s ouster last year, Iran s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei welcomed the prospect of Islamist rule, with delegations from both countries exchanging visits. For Khamenei, the Arab Spring was in fact an Islamic Awakening.

But Egypt s internal divisions reveal a deeper awakening in the region that has its own significance. Lessons about government, governance, and democracy that took the West centuries to learn are being taken in at extraordinary speed.

In our globalized age, vast impersonal forces are supposed to determine events. Globalized markets, unfettered trade, militant Islam, China s awakening these are the things historians and strategists usually portray as the key forces shaping our destiny.

Moreover, we are beginning to identify molecular mechanisms that regulate the entry of cancer cells into a dormant state, as well as their re awakening at later times. Our knowledge of the regulation of tumor dormancy is really in its infancy.

The good news is that the economies of the Arab Awakening countries do not suffer from the deep distortions that characterized post communist Europe. Many of the early reforms have already been implemented, and reasonably sophisticated banking systems are in place.

Economists are now awakening to the realization that the most interesting questions they face were always beyond the reach of Marshall s toolkit. Clearly, economics if it is to succeed and progress must be very different in a generation from what it is today.

In the event of an Islamist political awakening, the army s allegiances are not guaranteed. In Iran, apart from senior commanders, who were either killed or fled the country, the Shah s powerful, staunchly secular army switched sides to Khomeini s revolutionary government virtually overnight.

Economic aid, the opening of the EU and US markets, strategic energy projects, legal and constitutional advice, and cooperation between universities are among the resources that the West must supply if it wants to contribute to the success of the Middle East s democratic awakening.

Yet there are political hitchhikers who want to exploit the recent awakening, not by promoting an agenda of freedom, but by imposing a different type of coercion. In the Arab world, it is mainly extreme Islamists who are hijacking the young generation s wave, stealing their revolution.

The Arab peoples genuine aspiration to secure for themselves the universal rights that Europeans enjoy refutes the West s long held orientalist perspective. Of course, it is still too early to predict the outcome of the Arab Awakening, and the countries in transition still face daunting challenges.

Its dilemma is stark. The Shia of the Mahdi Army defeated Iraq s Sunnis in the last bout of fighting, and thousands of Iraqi Sunnis, under the so called Awakening Movement, have rallied to the side of the United States forces and have fought against Al Qaeda.

Short term macroeconomic stability is the immediate priority in Egypt and the other Arab Awakening countries. In the medium term, however, the viability of the current order is at stake and not only in these countries, but across the rest of North Africa and the Middle East.

In the medium term, the world abounds with tensions and potential crises that US leadership is likely to be indispensable to resolving. As events over the past two weeks in Egypt have demonstrated all too vividly, the Arab awakening is still only in its first act in many countries.

Ongoing violence in Basra and the fighting between Sunni Awakening Councils and Al Qaida in Iraq demonstrate this. In fact, the current escalation points to an increasing political struggle between the federalist position of Shia Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki and the centralist position of Shiite cleric Moqtada al Sadr.

From the very outset of the Arab Awakening, Turkey has taken a principled stand on the side of legitimate and democratic aspirations. Aware of our special role as a historical partner and, more so, as a source of inspiration to those demanding their rights and freedom, we felt particularly compelled to do so.

And, while the tectonic shift in the region was triggered by the Arab Awakening, its players are not limited to the Arab world or to the confines of the Middle East conflict. The United States, Europe, Turkey, and, in a certain sense, Iran all play a role some more directly than others.

As a result, while political uncertainty will take its toll on economic growth, the Arab Awakening countries should not have to face a transitional recession, as post communist Europe did in the 1990 s. On the other hand, they are unlikely to benefit from the subsequent robust growth that most European transition countries experienced.

For the first time, Hamas proved capable of causing disruptions as far away as Tel Aviv, while Israel was forced to defend its behavior and reputation even with its traditional allies, including the United States. But the biggest lesson for Israel is that it needs to comprehend better the new strategic environment following the Arab Awakening.

Whether the Arab and wider Islamic world s democratic awakening will actually prevail or produce only change at the top of authoritarian regimes, whether it will lead to a stable order or sustained chaos and radicalization, still remains unclear. One thing, however, is already clear the era when this vast region slept while others modernized has ended.

Perhaps surprisingly, there is widespread consensus in the Arab Awakening countries that the private sector is central to sustained job creation and growth. We saw this recently when the EBRD, together with the British based organization Forward Thinking, conducted a closed door workshop for 27 leading representatives of parties from across the political spectrum in the region.

Once every year ... ... three remarkable individuals are awarded a unique prize. They each get 100,000 plus something much bigger. One wish to change the world. Anyone inspired by the wish can help make it come true ... starting now. I was a student in the '60s, a time of social upheaval and questioning, and on a personal level an awakening sense of idealism.

Many fear precisely such an outcome for the Arab awakening, with popular movements toppling despots, only to install new dictators via elections. The only way to avoid it is to be more committed to the process of electing a government freely and fairly than to the leader or party that is elected, even when the victor is frankly inimical to your interests.

Along with Iran, Russia, which seeks to undermine American and British influence in the Middle East, supports the Shia awakening, whereas Sunni dominated Turkey, the region s strongest military power and a NATO member, has done little to hide its sympathy for the Islamic State. Recently, for example, Turkey s government forbid the country s Kurds from supporting their ethnic kin in Iraq and Syria, whom the Islamic State has targeted for annihilation.

When it does, it will be a major defeat for Iran, not only entailing the loss of its main Arab ally, but also jeopardizing the position of its client, Hezbollah, in Lebanon. At the same time, a variant of the Muslim Brotherhood will come to power in Syria, as has been or will be the case almost everywhere in the Middle East as a result of the Arab Awakening.