The imminent resumption of the talks and the upswing in violence may be linked.

The positive news on the political front has been tempered, however, by the relative upswing in violence in all three Darfur states as compared to April.

The 2004 cyclical upswing is expected to continue in 2005, when ESCWA forecasts indicate 5.2 per cent real growth, with the exception of Iraq and Palestine.

The cases of gun related crimes, however, are still on the upswing, especially the increasingly widespread criminal activities of selling guns online, seriously affecting social public order and the people's sense of security.

Nevertheless, there is every reason to expect the German economy s upswing to continue for the time being. With some luck, good times for Germany, and for Europe as a whole, could last until the end of the decade.

A modern Keynesian government does not hesitate to increase spending in the face of a recession. But, in order to do that, it needs the high credibility and low debt that follow from having saved and repaid debt during the upswing.

Capital buffers to absorb losses during the downturn of the cycle can be more easily built during the upswing. Furthermore, by raising regulatory capital costs in boom times, some counterweight to the pro cyclical bias intrinsic to financial systems would be introduced.

But even Germany, Europe s biggest economy, is experiencing an upswing. The Ifo climate indicator for Germany, based on monthly surveys of 7,000 firms, jumped upwards in the second half of 2005, reaching its highest value since the boom year 2000, with businesses assessment of the current situation and expectations improving.

The state income tax is not only uncompetitively high, but the revenues are volatile. In the economic and stock market upswing, revenues roll in far more rapidly than incomes rise, owing to the extremely progressive income tax (in good years, the top 1 pays about half the state s income taxes).

Human mobility is limited, and Turkey workers' would probably be allowed to move freely within the EU only after a long transition period, possibly not before 2025. Given the expected upswing of Turkey's economy and its declining birthrate, experts predict a figure of around 2.7 million immigrants by that point.

Particularly disturbing are the reports of a recent upswing in violence in the south of the country and indications that remnant Taliban and other extremist forces are reorganizing, as clearly indicated by the United Nations Secretary General in his report to the Security Council on Afghanistan of 12 August 2005 (A 60 224).

NEW YORK The upswing in global equity markets that started in July is now running out of steam, which comes as no surprise with no significant improvement in growth prospects in either the advanced or major emerging economies, the rally always seemed to lack legs. If anything, the correction might have come sooner, given disappointing macroeconomic data in recent months.

Export restrictions in producing countries and price controls in importing countries both serve to exacerbate the magnitude of the world price upswing, owing to the artificially reduced quantity that is still internationally traded. If producing and consuming countries in grain markets could cooperatively agree to refrain from such government intervention probably by working through the World Trade Organization world price volatility might be lower.

North Korean propaganda is not always a reliable indicator, but the recent upswing in attacks on the US, including a bizarre video to the tune of We are the World should not be completely laughed off. Gone are the hopes that the boy dictator Kim Jong un and his regents are more interested in economic development than they are in following the Kim dynasty s traditional military first policies.