For example, US real per capita GDP grew by a factor of 1.87 that is, nearly doubled in size from 1961 to 1986, but by a factor of only 1.58 from 1978 to 2003. Such differences in 25 year growth rates are important if US GDP grows by a factor of 1.87 over the next 25 years, annual GDP will be 3.6 trillion ( 10,000 per person) higher than if it grows by a factor of only 1.58.

In its most recent WEO, the IMF forecasts global GDP to grow by only 3.3 in 2012, and by 3.6 in 2013. Moreover, the downgrading of growth prospects is remarkably widespread.

In the last two years, credit grew almost twice as fast as GDP, and total social financing grew even faster. Yet GDP growth slowed considerably from an annual average of 10.2 in 2002 2011 suggesting that China may be moving closer to a medium to low speed growth path.

And the GDP in Africa is not making much progress.

Argentina s long term GDP growth has been disappointing. In fact, real GDP per capita declined 15 over the 25 year period from 1965 to 1990 a period that saw some Asian economies quintuple in size.

Even the reduced global forecast of 3.4 GDP growth for this year is likely to prove excessively optimistic. Before the crisis, world trade grew at 6 8 annually well faster than GDP.

From 2000 to 2014, global GDP more than doubled, from 31.8 trillion to over 75 trillion. Over the same period, China s nominal GDP soared from 1.2 trillion to more than 10 trillion growing at more than four times the global rate.

The economy therefore limped along year after year, with real GDP in the final quarter of each year less than 2 higher than it had been a year earlier. Employment grew more slowly than the population, and annual real wage increases averaged only about 1 .

Gordon also points to the recent slowdown in real (inflation adjusted) GDP growth. According to official US statistics, real GDP per worker grew at an average annual rate of 2.3 from 1891 to 1972, but by only 1.5 since then.

Similarly, GDP growth began to pick up in the spring of 2014, running above the rate of the preceding three years. Partly as a result of income growth, the US budget deficit last year was lower than forecast, at about 2.8 of GDP.

That was in the early 2000s when India was going gung ho about GDP growth as the means forward looking at China with its stellar growths of eight, nine, 10 percent and wondering, why can we do the same?

Yet, rather than a new recession, or an ongoing depression, the US unemployment rate has fallen from 8.6 in November 2011 to 5.8 in November 2014. Real economic growth in 2011 stood at 1.6 , and the IMF expects it to be 2.2 for 2014 as a whole.

Over the past decade, China has accounted for an average of 1.6 percentage points of world GDP growth per year more than double the combined 0.7 percentage point contribution of the so called advanced economies. Even if its GDP growth slows to 6.8 this year, China would account for slightly more growth than is likely from the advanced world.

GDP growth of 4.6 per cent remained modest, particularly since it had not fed into job creation.

Consider the US. Though annual GDP growth is estimated to have rebounded to 4 in the second quarter of 2014, following the 2.1 first quarter contraction, that still leaves average growth in the first half of the year at a measly 1 .

The unemployment rate remains about two percentage points higher than what most economists consider consistent with a full recovery, and the labor force participation rate is hovering near historic lows. The economy is still operating far below its potential GDP is about 6 below what the economy is capable of producing at full capacity without higher inflation.

But the long term economic prospects of the global economy as a whole look gloomy. As societies in many OECD countries age, and catch up growth in large emerging economies begins to wind down, global GDP growth is expected to fall from its annual average of 3.6 in the 2010 2020 period to an estimated 2.4 in 2050 2060.

In economic terms, the world is entering an era of diminished expectations. If, as predicted, average annual GDP growth amounts to 3 in the foreseeable future, it will take 25 years for the world economy to double in size ten years longer than it took before the global economic crisis, when average GDP growth stood at 5 .

PRINCETON In April 2010, when the global economy was beginning to recover from the shock of the 2008 2009 financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund s World Economic Outlook predicted that global GDP growth would exceed 4 in 2010, with a steady annual growth rate of 4.5 maintained through 2015. But the forecast proved to be far too optimistic.

Despite nerve wracking ups and downs, the last 50 years delivered an unprecedented global growth dividend. Measured according to GDP (admittedly a flawed metric), the world economy expanded sixfold.

A study last year showed a direct correlation between the growth of mobile phone use and subsequent GDP increases across Africa.

Why, then, has India s GDP growth slowed so much, from nearly 10 year on year in 2010 11 to 5 today? Was annual growth of almost 8 in the decade from 2002 to 2012 an aberration?

Recently released official Palestinian data, shown in table 1, indicate some recovery in 2003 with 4.5 per cent GDP growth.

But, as fertility declines and populations age, the labor engine s contribution to growth will fall sharply, to little more than 0.3 percentage points of annual growth. Even if productivity continues to rise at the same rate, global GDP growth could slow to just over 2 annually, on average a 40 drop from the last 50 years.

After all, global growth, at its current level, is inadequate for mere redistribution among countries to work. Overall global GDP needs to increase.

A stimulus package of less than prudent fixed asset investment, adopted in response to the 2008 global financial crisis, sustained 9 GDP growth for two years. But, after 2011, stimulus turned to macroeconomic tightening, causing investment growth to plummet from a nominal rate of over 30 to about 10 recently.

According to preliminary reports, annual investment growth in 2012 reached roughly 14 significantly higher than the GDP growth rate, which accelerated in the fourth quarter as a result of a strong rebound in investment in real estate and infrastructure. In 2013, it can be expected that, barring major disruptions, strong investment growth will push China s GDP more than 8 higher year on year.

Final sales to households, businesses, and foreign buyers rose at only a 1.1 annual rate, even slower than earlier in the year. And the preliminary estimate for annual GDP growth in the first quarter of 2012 was a disappointing 2.2 , with only a 1.6 rise in final sales.

This year, GDP growth in the world s advanced economies is expected to average 2 , compared to 3.2 worldwide. And 2016 is shaping up to be no better, with output in the OECD growing by 2.5 , while the rest of the world s GDP expands at a 3.8 rate close to the pre crisis average.

My extrapolation of the IMF model shows that Western countries can boost their long term GDP growth significantly by increasing their levels of capital investment over a three year period. An annual stimulus equivalent to just 0.3 of GDP yields a return in the US of 0.8 in economic growth at its peak in 2013, and 0.4 in Europe.

Now, while I was at Microsoft, the annual revenues of that company grew larger than the GDP of the Republic of Ghana.

Second, persistent weakness in consumption and GDP growth puts the US economy on a much weaker growth trajectory than that which is built into the government s long term budget estimates. The Congressional Budget Office is assuming 3.4 average growth in real GDP over the 2013 to 2016 period.

Few would argue against China s need for slower but better growth. The problem is that if China wishes to lower the GDP growth rate to 7.5 in 2012, from 9.2 in 2011, without worsening the growth pattern by raising the high investment rate even further, the annual growth rate of investment must be equal to or less than 7.5 .

Excluding this inventory swing, annualized growth in final sales to consumers, businesses, and the government averaged a tepid 1.6 . With inventory investment unlikely to keep accelerating at anything close to its recent rate, overall GDP growth can be expected to converge on this more subdued pace of final demand.

T he tax multiplier is around minus 1.1.... Thus, GDP would be higher than otherwise by 120 billion in 2009 and 180 billion in 2010..., and by 60 billion in 2011.

As of this year, 1 of GDP growth is consistent with more than 3.5 of credit growth. China s financial sector is now increasingly feeling the strain of this rapid credit growth, which has led to overcapacity in favored sectors and mounting debt problems for local governments, SOEs, and banks.

By 2050, the economic shortfall will reach 3 . The accumulated loss of global output over the next 35 years will total 100 trillion more than one and a half times annual world GDP today.

47. The growth of the world economy over the last 35 years has been enormous, measured only by GDP, which as we know falls far short of measuring wealth in its entirety.

China's 10 trillion economy is bigger than those of France, Germany, and Italy combined. Even if its annual output growth slows to 7 , the country will add some 700 billion to global GDP this year.

A back of the envelope calculation suffices to show that, unless the government is prepared to tolerate a further increase in the investment rate, achieving a GDP growth target of 7.5 implies a significant fall in the growth rate of investment. To compensate for the negative impact on GDP growth, and with export growth constrained by weak global demand, consumption must rise even more sharply, which is hard to imagine.

But there is no reason why trade should grow faster than GDP forever. Indeed, even if there were no trade barriers at all, trade might grow significantly more slowly than GDP in some periods.

But real income gains of 1.3 per year for the middle quintiles and 1.1 for the bottom are not exactly chopped liver, are they? The gap with 1.6 average annual growth rate for per capita GDP is small, isn t it?

The government now stresses three macroeconomic goals job creation, price stability, and GDP growth. And, as evidenced by the annual work report that the premier recently submitted to China s National People s Congress, the current emphasis is in that order, with GDP growth at the bottom of the list.

But the growth formula that long underpinned South Korea s success a form of state guided capitalism that focuses on export led manufacturing is no longer working for many South Koreans. GDP has nearly tripled over the past 20 years, but, with real wages rising at less than half this rate, growth has become decoupled from the fate of ordinary citizens.

The collapse of China s credit bubble would likely cause annual GDP growth to drop to 1 2 , on average, for the subsequent four years, assuming a 2 annual decline in capital expenditure and a still respectable consumption growth rate of 3 5 . Consolidated public sector debt would rise to 100 of GDP.