Let's suppose there's a test for HIV the virus that causes AIDS and the test says the person has the disease.

Well, amongst the 100 who do have the disease, the test will get it right 99 percent of the time, and 99 will test positive.

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Over the years 140 pregnant women have tested HIV positive in Estonia.

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And again, 50 years of good non invasive stress testing, we're pretty good at recognizing male pattern disease with stress tests.

Priorities for XDR TB surveillance include facilitating access to reliable susceptibility testing to second line drugs and incorporating this, together with information about HIV testing, into existing TB surveillance activities.

HIV is also tested for blood donors, prisoners, persons serving in the armed forces, pregnant women and for persons who have tuberculosis and STD.

And then they give you another test and they tell you you're HIV positive, and you're devastated.

He wanted to test out the question of, where is it that patients should recover from heart attacks?

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The test gets it right 99 percent of the time.

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The other explanation is that the person does have the disease that's unlikely but the test gets it right, which is likely.

Here's another quiz for you now suppose we've got a test for a disease which isn't infallible, but it's pretty good.

In the disease example, we had to bear in mind two things, one of which was the possibility that the test got it right or not.

In 2001, the leading causes of death for women were the diseases of the circulatory system, malign neoplasm, symptoms, signs, and abnormal clinical signs and laboratory test results, etc.

What we have to do, once we know the test is positive, is to weigh up the plausibility, or the likelihood, of two competing explanations.

It's exactly the same logical error as the logical error of thinking that after the disease test, which is 99 percent accurate, the chance of having the disease is 99 percent.

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All registered pregnant women are advised to take an HIV test.

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Amongst all these other people who don't have the disease, the test will get it right 99 percent of the time.

They will test any one of you for 60,000 genetic conditions.

That brings up questions of privacy and insurability and all kinds of stuff, but it also allows us to start going after diseases, because if you run a person who has leukemia through something like this, it turns out that three diseases with completely similar clinical syndromes are completely different diseases.

In resource rich countries, with all the tests and treatment we currently have, less than two percent of babies are born HIV positive 98 percent of babies are born HIV negative.

You get on Google, you Google, and you find, actually the only people tested in Burkina Faso in 1991 are STD patients and pregnant women, which is not a terribly representative group of people.

In fact, most of the people studying bioluminescence today are focused on the chemistry, because these chemicals have proved so incredibly valuable for developing antibacterial agents, cancer fighting drugs, testing for the presence of life on Mars, detecting pollutants in our waters which is how we use it at ORCA.

So to test this crazy idea, we developed a small dune buggy prototype vehicle to test the feasibility.

They wanted to capture one other variable, which was the patients' sense of efficacy.

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