Probability

Probability of success

Probability of failure

2.1.2 Collision probabilities

Probability of outcome

Coconuts! You can get killed by a coconut more likely than killed by a shark.

You all know what the likelihood is of pulling the ace of spades or of flipping a heads.

The pattern itself is the message.

Applying basic probability theory, this produces the following mission start up probability matrix Table 1

Let's think about probability.

That is about as high as you can get.

Revised estimates effect of changes in rates of exchange and inflation

They're not rational about probability.

Mission start up probability matrix

2. Minimum new mission probabilities.

When they get up to 90 percent child survival, then families decrease, and most of the Arab countries in the Middle East is falling down there to small families .

The probability of impacts depends on the size of the objects, the distribution of which follows a reasonably well known law of power.

But that's a probabilistic statement.

It's just elementary probability theory.

About on average, a typical person is taking it 75 percent of the time.

This is a thousandtoone shot.

Collision avoidance is always probabilistic.

(b) The probability of impact damage to any given subsystem

But we're going to represent beliefs with probabilities.

Probability value for which the standard logarithmic distribution is to be calculated

The odds against survival in this camp are even worse.

However, the known and assessed population of debris is growing, and the probabilities of potentially damaging collisions will consequently increase.

It is also assumed that the probability of such missions being started is 0.3 (30 per cent) for a medium sized mission and 0.7 (70 per cent) for a small mission, and that these probabilities are independent.

So we previously defined CPDs. CPDs just as a reminder is a Conditional Probability

This suggests that a probability of life appearing is reasonably high.

Higher average vacancy rate of 20 per cent than the 5 per cent applied in the estimate.

Higher average vacancy rate of 18 per cent than the 15 per cent applied in the estimate.

Further applying basic probability theory, this matrix implies that there is a 95 per cent probability of at least one new mission being launched every 13 months.

There's an inherent problem with low probability events.

The probability of no penetration (PNP) is the main criterion for shield design.

When I was a student, the mortality rate was about 95 percent.

Tell me what's the percentage of a guy getting out of his cell without getting cut down?

And then you go build on that in the next concept.

The application of inflation and other cost adjustments to the 2006 2007 estimates (expressed at 2004 2005 rates) results in a recosting of these estimates to 2006 2007 rates.

The application of inflation and other cost adjustments to the 2006 2007 estimates (expressed at 2004 2005 rates) results in a recosting of these estimates to 2006 2007 rates.

7. The probability of an accidental collision in Earth orbit is currently slight, but it is becoming greater as the number and size of satellites are increasing.

The probability of an accidental collision in Earth orbit is currently slight, but it is becoming greater as the number and size of satellites are increasing.

I like to think of what I do as a probability wave.

The reason is, this isn't how people do odds.

3. Revised estimates effects of changes in rates of exchange and inflation