During the 2004 05 financial year, only five missions were subjected to an aviation assessment, namely, MONUC, ONUB, UNAMSIL, UNDOF, UNMIS and UNOCI.

However, while the capacity forecast is more likely to be below the mark than above it, the reverse is true for the demand forecasts.

The most predictable aspect of the Fund is that revenues will fall short of needs.

8. As noted above, Annex I provides updated projections for programme needs in 1998, as well as a forecast of income, including information on income actually received.

Higher projected requirements.

The objective is to ensure that current use levels are predicated solely by, and matched to actual needs.

Figure 1 in annex 3 projects business acquisition requirements for 2006 2008 under option one.

These projections are now some 18.8 million higher than those presented in document A AC.96 900, mainly because the budgetary estimates have been increased to include the requirements for Sierra Leonean refugees in Guinea and Liberia, the estimated requirements for the Western Sahara and Cambodia repatriations, and for the Kosovo crisis.

In addition, expenditure estimates are established which anticipate actual requirements and constitute the request of the Executive Director to the Commission for appropriations.

Capsule forecasting, stock management and ordering systems were improved at both the global and country levels.

Regional programmes, where relevant, must foresee the need for baseline surveys, and budget for them accordingly.

As these are continuously emerging, it is difficult to forecast too far in advance the precise levels of resources that will be required in this Fund.

(d) Creating a demand for climate change adaptation technology, for example, by setting standards that incorporate climate change projections, or via the market by requirements of the insurance industry

Emphasizing the need to mobilize adequate, predictable, timely and flexible resources for humanitarian assistance based on and in proportion to assessed needs, with a view to ensuring fuller coverage of the needs in all sectors and across humanitarian emergencies,

A demand forecasting model will be tested with some key markets and the National Committee will be encouraged to order more frequently based on more current and actual sales forecasts.

Malaysia maintains economic needs tests.

Recommendation 11 (i) 27. Instead of using the exchange rates available at specific periods of time as the basis for forecasting budgetary requirements, UNICEF should consider adopting an appropriate averaging method to obtain more accurate projections.

Currently, actual and projected availability of funds (including the 1997 carry over) is thus 875.7 million or 45.8 million short of projected total needs.

Also recognizing the need for a better functioning of commodity markets and the necessity of stable and more predictable commodity prices, including searching for long term solutions,

It is, therefore, not possible to forecast in detail in 1997 the specific requests for assistance which will be made to the Secretariat for action in 1999.

World demand forecasts for 2005 and 2006 point to annual growth rates of 4 to 5 per cent, which would be just enough to accommodate the planned capacity additions.

The projected budgets for 2005 2009 showed that more funding was sorely needed to meet the objectives.

(a) Programme budget for 1998 1999 perspectives on financial requirements

In addition, parallel meetings are being avoided, which puts the secretariat in a better position to forecast demands for meetings and at the same time reduce the resources required to the very minimum.

They're in really good shape to anticipate what we're going to want next.

A. Programme budget for 1998 1999 perspectives on financial requirements

In order to predict effectively, we need to use science.

The most predictable aspect of the Fund is that revenues will fall short of needs.

It requires careful monitoring and occasional intervention from Headquarters.

UNICEF agrees to issue a guideline on investments in research and development to avoid the recurrence of advance payments for untested or faulty items and to improve demand forecasting.

13. Calls upon donors to provide adequate, predictable and flexible resources based on and in proportion to assessed needs, and to encourage efforts to implement the principles of Good Humanitarian Donorship

So, what do we need to know in order to predict?

Nowadays, the need to forecast emergency situations and for disaster preparedness is becoming increasingly evident.

Moreover, production may occur in response to actual demand, not anticipated or forecast demand. In some sense, this represents the ultimate compression of supply chains, as firms produce to final demand with minimal delay.

7. Initial Special Programmes needs for 1999 stand at 429.2 million as projected as at 31 May 1998 (Table II.9 of document A AC.96 900).

In paragraph 267 of the report, UNDP agreed with the Board's recommendation that it prepare, monitor and evaluate short term projected cash flows for all country offices, in each currency, in an improved manner in order to anticipate future funding or investment requirements.

The budget covered the minimum of the Agency s needs, and there was no automatic annual 5 per cent increase in budget needs as there had been in the past.

5. Project Costs and Cash Advance Requirements

Business acquisition planning, option two Figure 2 in annex 3 projects business acquisition requirements for 2006 2008 under option two.

And it's also estimated that there is going to be twice as much meat and dairy consumed.

We need military presence, but we need to move to politics.

A Programme budget for 1998 1999 perspectives on financial requirements 27 29 11

The European Union recognized that the recent revisions to the Mission's mandate had made staffing requirements more difficult to forecast.

Table 1.

Aid flows should be predictable and aligned with countries' needs.