Consolidated income projections

Income and expenditure projections

Table 2

Table 3 Income Expenditure Forecast 2005

(b) Breadth, stability, predictability and collectability of revenue

2004 revenue is projected at 38.41 million.

In early September 2004, the Governor vetoed the budget bill on the grounds that the revenue projections were too high.

Budget projections for 2005 point to continued strong total revenue performance, with an increase of 8.4 per cent above 2004 levels.

The 2005 budget proposal foresees revenues in the amount of 53.77 million and expenditures of 50.86 million, resulting in a projected net income of 2.91 million.

Environment Fund

The report forecasts that there will be an 80 per cent increase in traffic fatalities in low and middle income countries by 2020 if preventive measures are not taken immediately.

The Board notes that UNOPS has performed a three year lease income forecast for subleases, projecting an average annual lease income of 1.8 million.

The financial plan forecasts total income of 2,305 million for 2005, an increase of 327 million compared to actual results for 2004.

For the biennium 2006 2007, under a low income projection for UNODC (base income scenario), special purpose funds would account for 73 per cent of the income projection for the Office, while general purpose funds would account for 14 per cent and the contribution from the regular budget of the United Nations would account for 13 per cent (see E CN.7 2005 12, figure I).

The projected year end revenues and expenditures constitute a most likely case' scenario.

Broken down in percentage terms, the revenue generated from the project portfolio of services is estimated at 60.1 per cent revenue generated from direct service provision is estimated at 36.5 per cent and revenue from rental and interest represents 3.4 per cent of total projected 2004 revenue.

Overall, even though total revenues for 2004 exceeded budget projections by over 100 million, external donor support did not meet projections.

Based on income projections in the plan, total expenditures (net of reimbursement costs) for 2005 and 2006 are forecast to be 2,131 million and 2,076 million, respectively.

The Committee is therefore concerned that a 17 per cent increase in projected income may not be warranted.

Total programme expenditures from regular resources, projected in the present plan, are based on forecasts of future regular resources income.

Actual amounts of income and expenditure can differ from projections because (a) income is dependant on voluntary contributions (b) the rate of expenditures can be influenced by a number of factors, many of which are beyond UNICEF control and (c) exchange rate fluctuations add significant uncertainty to income and expenditure projections.

The compilation of data required to provide the Executive Board with the most current information has delayed the submission of the present report.

For example, although budgeting systems were nearly universally considered to be of the highest importance, Governments differed in their ability to use budgetary tools to predict revenues accurately.

As indicated in the proposed budget, if the projection of contributions proves to be inaccurate and the income projections for 2006 2007 are not realized by the beginning of the biennium, the budget will be adjusted (UNEP GC.23 8, para.

As such, AGL continues to expect the contracts to contribute to earnings in fiscal year 17, the power company said.

Annex III, table 2 shows, inter alia, income projections from various sources for the period 2005 2009.

The levels of planned programme expenditure will be continuously adjusted based on updated information about projected income.

1.61 Current projections of income and expenditure for 2005, shown in Table 3 below, indicate a funding gap for the regular budget of 11.1 million when comparing the net budgeted expenditure of 399.8 million (see Table 3 below) with total expected income of 388.7 million (based on indicative estimates from donors as well as interest income).

The projected level of contributions for 2006 2007 ( 135 million) represents a 20 million, or 17 per cent, increase over the amount of 115 million in approved for 2004 2005.

As a result, according to current projected actuals of revenue and expenditure, expenditure will exceed revenue by 13.99 million (including 3.5 million in installation expenditure payments for the Atlas rollout).

In 2004, for the first time, domestic public revenues exceeded budget projections.

During an economic expansion, such as in the 2002 2007 period, governments are tempted to forecast that the boom will continue indefinitely. Forecasts for tax revenue and budget surpluses are correspondingly optimistic and so hide the need for fiscal adjustment.

Effective 1 January 2004, UNFPA had a dedicated unit within its Finance Branch to record receipts and to forecast income and expenditure.

UNOPS recognizes the need for a balanced budget to ensure that, as a self financing entity, expenditures are fully covered from revenues earned and thus submits a projection for 2005 of revenue of 53.77 million and expenditures of 50.86 million.

The projections for future years take into account higher other resources expenditure levels and increased recovery offset following the adoption of the new UNICEF recovery policy.

While earned revenues fell below projections, change management expenditures were contained and the implementation of some change initiatives was deferred.

Income projections for 2005 2009

The middle income countries needed predictable and consistent assistance if they were not to fall into distressing situations that would be more costly to cure than they would have been to prevent.

But, if forecasts are biased, fiscal rules will not constrain budget deficits. 160 In any given year, governments can forecast that their growth rates, tax revenues, and budget balances will improve in subsequent years, and then argue the following year that the shortfalls were unexpected.

But, if forecasts are biased, fiscal rules will not constrain budget deficits. In any given year, governments can forecast that their growth rates, tax revenues, and budget balances will improve in subsequent years, and then argue the following year that the shortfalls were unexpected.

Table 5.1 Projected income for 2006 and 2007 budgets

This plan enables the Executive Board to review the financial performance of UNICEF in 2004 and see updated income projections.

Based on the income earned under this heading in 2004 and anticipated for 2005, estimates of 1,464,600 under the regular budget and 315,200 in the operational budget are considered reasonable for 2006 2007.

And the best projection from the World Bank is that this will happen, and we will not have a divided world. We'll have most people in the middle.

Revenue is projected to amount to 300 million for 2005.