A Jobless Recovery?

China s Jobless Growth Miracle

Jobless Recoveries and Manic Policies

In 2002 we had about 50 percent of the people jobless there.

The jobless became desperate for work any work that would help them to support their families.

Let there be no doubt if Cubans are jobless or hungry, it is because of the failings of the current Government.

By end 2003, the number of jobless in Eastern Europe and in the CIS was about 18 million and 10 million, respectively.

The unemployment rate, especially among disadvantaged groups young people and women is staggering. In Sierra Leone alone, over 60 of the country s youth are jobless.

Greece is in its fifth year of a slump. And eurozone unemployment is at record highs, with nearly one in two young people jobless in Spain and Greece.

The sharp increase in youth unemployment (38 million young people half of the world's jobless youth) and the implications of the tsunami disaster represent new development challenges for the region.

Over reliance on market mechanisms contributed to jobless growth, the gradual collapse of public services and the deepening of poverty and inequality.8 There are, however, growing signs of a turnaround.

Unemployment has risen to a record 11.2 , with 35 of young people jobless. And the tax burden, which has exceeded 40 of GDP since 1990, now stands at almost 43 of GDP.

Disarmament and demobilization have concluded, and the warring factions have been officially dissolved, but most ordinary Liberians are jobless and upset that they have not seen substantial improvements in their living conditions.

Unemployment rose from 21.7 per cent in 1999 to reach a peak of 41.2 per cent in 2002 and then declined to an average of 32.6 per cent in 2004, leaving more than 290,000 Palestinians jobless.

There are about 100 million jobless people in the G 20, and another 200 million young people who are neither working nor studying. Significantly reducing youth unemployment is one of the G 20 s most important commitments.

The number of unemployed people across the world had risen by 31 per cent between 1993 and 2003 to reach 186 million, and the problem of unemployment was exacerbated by deindustrialization, public sector retrenchment and jobless growth .

The recent downturn in France s industrial output has created large trade deficits, and is undermining the competitiveness of small and medium size enterprises. Unemployment stands at about 11 , with a record high 3.3 million workers registered as jobless in October.

In Spain and Greece, more than one quarter of the labor force is jobless, while the unemployment rate hovers around 60 among young people. Despite harsh austerity, large fiscal deficits persist, and banks remain undercapitalized and unable to support a sustained economic recovery.

On the other side, Europe and the United States face stagnation indeed, a Japanese style malaise and stubbornly high unemployment. The problem in the advanced countries is not a jobless recovery, but an anemic recovery or worse, the possibility of a double dip recession.

First, they must seize further ground from populists, by delivering reforms that yield tangible short term benefits. Employment subsidies for jobless women and young people, expanded access to childcare, improved public transport, and effective anti crime measures are all policies that boost both fairness and efficiency, now.

Meanwhile, inequality has increased worldwide even in countries that have experienced rapid economic expansion, notably China and India. While growth is usually needed for poverty reduction, it does not necessarily translate into job creation, as many countries recent record of jobless or job poor growth demonstrates.

Older people, who were prudent and held their money in government bonds, will see lower returns further curtailing their consumption. And low interest rates will encourage firms that do invest to spend on fixed capital like highly automated machines, thereby ensuring that, when recovery comes, it will be relatively jobless.

Despite the massive tax cuts of 2001 and the increase in military and security spending, the US experienced a prolonged jobless recovery. That compelled the Fed to keep interest rates at historic lows for an extended period, and rates were raised only gradually because of fears about the recovery s fragility.

Freshly minted degree holders, especially from lower quality programs, are finding it particularly hard to get a job nowadays, because they are competing with experienced workers who are also jobless. Nevertheless, the unemployment rate for those with degrees is one third the unemployment rate for those without a high school diploma.

Monks find their life s meaning in a most austere environment, and military boot camps are thought to build character. But the kind of fiscal austerity that is being practiced now has the immediate effect of rendering people jobless and filling their lives with nothing but a sense of rejection and exclusion.

That s an interesting discussion, particularly at a time with unemployment is still above 8 (with recent declines largely the result of many jobless workers decision to stop looking and drop out of the labor force altogether). Precipitate austerity is hardly likely to help the economy find its way back to higher employment levels.

Workers, employers and governments must engage in dialogue to put in place the social policies which ensure that green jobs are decent jobs. Only in this way can the poor and the jobless from Marseille to Mumbai and Sao Paulo to Shanghai be optimistic that creating an environmentally sustainable world will also deliver decent, environmentally sustainable work.

Indeed, in January, the IMF revised its near term outlook for eurozone growth downward, to 0.2 in 2013. Meanwhile, official data from Spain indicate that the jobless rate rose to 26 (almost six million people) in the last three months of 2012, the highest figure since the mid 1970 s, with the rate of youth unemployment reaching 55 .

First, the weak and largely jobless economic recovery in America and Europe shines the spotlight on China s surging exports and the non tariff barriers confronted by would be importers to China. You would have difficulty finding many members of the US Congress who do not ascribe some of America s problems, including the hollowing out of the middle class, to China s alleged currency manipulation.

Emerging studies on the risk taking and asset price inflation engendered by ultra low policy rates will eventually convince Fed policymakers to change their stance. But, if politicians are to become less anxious about jobs, perhaps we need to start discussing whether jobless recoveries are here to stay, and whether the US safety net, devised for a different era, needs to be modified.

Her Government dismissed Armenia's accusations of a blockade against Nagorny Karabakh, since a State could not blockade its own territory on the contrary, it was Armenia which was blockading Azerbaijan, with Nakhichevan completely cut off from the rest of Azerbaijan except by air, to the detriment of the 50,000 jobless people there, including 1,400 families forced out of Nagorny Karabakh.

Once the crisis became a sad daily reality for millions of unemployed particularly for what appears to be a lost generation of young, jobless Europeans EU institutions also became a target of popular rage. Their inadequacies embodied in a cumbersome system of governance, and in endless, inconclusive summitry and their lack of democratic legitimacy are being repudiated by millions of voters throughout the continent.

But, as President Barack Obama argued in his recent State of the Union address, it will take more than faster economic growth for American workers to recover from the Great Recession. Extending unemployment benefits for the long term jobless, combating the stigma against hiring them, creating more on the job training opportunities and apprenticeships, and raising the minimum wage are all essential steps toward a more equitable distribution of the recovery s benefits.